The difficulty of predicting the stock market
The complexity and uncertainty of the stock market makes it difficult to predict its short-term behavior. A variety of external factors affect the market, and it's very difficult to predict how these factors will change. Because of this, it's important to recognize that short-term predictions are about as likely as the odds in a game of sips.
However, despite these difficulties, we can understand some of the characteristics of the stock market and build a long-term investment strategy accordingly.
Long-term investing and the market's upward tendency
Over the long term, the stock market tends to go up, which is supported by data that shows that the longer the investment horizon, the higher the probability of a positive return. For example, when stock indices are evaluated on a monthly basis, they are up 53.4% of the time, while when evaluated on a 20-year basis, they are up 100% of the time.
These facts emphasize the importance of a long-term investment strategy. It's important to understand the importance of having an investment strategy with a long-term perspective, rather than being swayed by the short-term volatility of the stock market.
Determining whether the market is undervalued or overvalued
Investors can roughly determine whether a stock is undervalued or overvalued. This can be done by looking at market valuation metrics or individual stock valuation metrics. It's about judging the value of a stock, just like we judge the price of vegetables at the supermarket.
This can help investors avoid buying stocks at a loss, or selling stocks at a loss, which can be the benchmark of a value investor.
The importance of identifying trends
Additionally, it is important to identify the trend of the stock market. By utilizing trend indicators such as MACD, TRIX, and moving average lines, you can identify trends in the stock market and plan your investment strategy accordingly.
For example, a simulation using the MACD showed a low win rate of 41%, but high long-term performance.
Conclusion
While it is difficult to predict the future of the stock market, it is important to understand the characteristics of the stock market and create a long-term investment strategy accordingly. You need to understand the tendency of the stock market to rise over the long term, how to recognize when the market is undervalued and overvalued, and the importance of identifying trends.
By creating and implementing a long-term investment strategy based on this understanding, you will be able to steadily increase your long-term returns, even if your current returns are lackluster. This way, when you look back one day, you will find that you have realized high returns.
